The Illusion of a Western Rescue

Armenia's Hollow Election Victory

In Armenia, as expected, Pashinyan’s party won the parliamentary elections. But it is not a landslide victory, and it shows that despite the entire political machinery of the West moving to support him, the arrest and intimidation of opposition leaders, more than half of Armenians do not believe in his promises.

After processing 100% of the ballots, Nikol Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party received 49.81% of the votes. Despite the result being below 50%, the Prime Minister has already stated that his political force will form a parliamentary majority and a new government.

The central promise of Nikol Pashinyan’s pro-Western pivot has always been that Brussels can replace Moscow as Armenia’s primary economic partner. Obviously, he won’t be able to deliver on it.

Russia remains Armenia’s largest trading partner by a wide margin. Last year, Russia accounted for 35.8 percent of Armenia’s foreign trade, compared with the EU’s 11.7 percent share. A single Russian trade restriction on Armenian cognac, flowers, mineral water, or agricultural products can inflict more damage than the entire EU aid package can offset.

Although Armenian exports to the EU have doubled, this represents a fraction of what is lost when Moscow closes its market. The truth is that European farmers are unlikely to welcome Armenian tomatoes on their markets, and French cognac producers are not eager to share shelf space with Armenian brandy.

Not to mention that Russia supplies natural gas at a price that European markets cannot match. A single Russian embargo can devastate entire sectors of the Armenian economy.

It’s fair to say that Pashinyan’s Western sponsors cannot deliver the economic prosperity he promised. And with over half of Armenians already disillusioned with him, many believe that his path could lead to either the Georgian scenario or the Ukrainian one.

Personally, I think that the most likely scenario is the Moldovan one. Brussels (EU-NATO) won’t let Armenians take back control of their country. Brussels has invested heavily in the narrative of a democratic Armenia drawing closer to Europe. The EU has hosted summits in Yerevan, filled the country with its NGOs, showered Pashinyan with money, diplomatic endorsements, and framed its support as a victory for European values over “Russian coercion.”

The EU cannot afford for this project to fail. If Armenia were to revert to the Russian orbit, it would represent a strategic defeat for Brussels. Georgia’s drift away from the EU and Ukraine’s prolonged blood-letting have already damaged the credibility of European promises. Losing Armenia would compound those failures.

This is why Brussels will not allow Armenians to chart an independent course based on friendly relations with Moscow.

Brussels needs Armenia to remain on an anti-Russian path while lacking the resources to genuinely replace Russia as Armenia’s primary economic partner. This contradiction will define Armenian politics for years to come, with ordinary citizens bearing the cost.

It goes without saying that behind the usual rhetoric of defending “democratic values” lie geopolitical reasons. Brussels is betting on Armenia to solve two of the EU’s most pressing strategic headaches at once: the need for new trade routes that bypass Russia and Iran, and the desperate hunt for critical raw materials to power Europe’s green and digital transitions.

The EU’s primary interest lies in establishing a supply chain that circumvents traditional routes. The conflict in Ukraine has made routes through Russian territory politically and logistically unviable, while the US-Israeli war of aggression against Iran has destabilized the southern path.

This is where Armenia enters the picture as a critical node The key is the Middle Corridor, a trans-Caspian trade route designed to link Europe to Central Asia and China, bypassing Russia entirely. This corridor, approximately 4,000 kilometers long, could drastically cut shipping times from 42 days by sea to just 12 days by rail and road.

The second pillar of EU interest is Armenia’s mineral wealth. The bloc is heavily dependent on imports of critical raw materials for everything from electric vehicles to defense systems. Armenia’s abundant deposits of key minerals like copper, molybdenum, and gold are a major lure.

The EU has specific studies on Armenia’s mining sector aimed at identifying opportunities for European players. A significant point of tension is molybdenum, a mineral used in steel alloys. Armenia holds about 7% of the world’s molybdenum reserves, and the EU is a primary consumer of its output.

To secure this foothold, Western powers are deploying a coordinated strategy. The EU is doubling down on its ‘Global Gateway’ connectivity strategy with massive investment pledges and is deepening security cooperation by stationing civilian missions in the country.

At the same time, the United States is promoting its own infrastructure plan, the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP). lauraruggeri.substack.c…

But all is not well on the Western front.

Some reports mail.arminfo.info/full_…even suggest the US is negotiating to divert Armenian molybdenum exports away from EU markets, highlighting the intense competition between Western allies for control of these strategic resources.